Hello readers,
If you’ve been following my blog for a while, you will know that I regularly report on the temperature of the Medway housing market when compared to other areas and given the volatility in the market at the moment, I thought I would pause to compare once again.
Medway continues to prove to be an excellent area for investors and when comparing against the UK average annual house price growth of 5.5% in February 2023 according to the Land Registry, Medway punches significantly above its weight holding out at 8.6%. That’s 56% higher than the UK average!
This annual growth is down from the 10% average we saw during 2022, but remains extremely strong and certainly encouraging for landlords, who continue to face increased costs from multiple angles.
As the graph below highlights, you will see how Medway is also currently beating Kent for house price growth and has remained extremely strong when compared to the UK average for the past couple of years.
Interestingly, 2020 saw a fall in Medway house prices compared to the UK average and even Kent. This really does stand out and you’ll see how we nearly hit -4% at one point. Quite why we saw this stark a drop, I’m not actually sure!
Obviously there was some impact due to COVID-19, but house price growth was slowing up anyhow and I believe this may be been due to uncertainty around Brexit and section 24 tax changes, however you will see that when the stamp duty holiday was introduced price increases shot back up.
Where does the Medway market go from here?
Well I think that it’s entirely predictable that we will stabilise at the average 3% – 5% which I predicted in my 2023 market article.
The stats from the Land Registry reflect data to and including February 2023, whereas data from the property portals suggest that current house price growth for Medway as of today sits at around 5%, but there is some variation across the Medway towns:
Rochester – 9% Growth
Chatham – 6% Growth
Gillingham – 3% Growth
Strood – 8% Growth
Interestingly, the latest Zoopla report suggests that UK wide growth has slowed to an average of 3% meaning that Medway has, once again, continued to beat the national average!
Here’s what Zoopla predicts for the remainder of the year as we start coming up to the six month mark:
“The worst of the house price falls in response to higher mortgage rates appear to be behind us. House price growth will slow further over 2023 and will turn into annual house price falls by the summer.”
So, we’re looking at possible annual house price falls by the summer, which starts in June. This is one to watch closely and for investors expanding their portfolio this year, it might be wise to hold off a little unless you are confident of a good deal. It would be interesting to hear your thoughts and observations on this point.
The overall story for Medway continues to be positive however, and I will endeavour to keep you updated as things continue to unfold.
Hasan
