Since May’s elections, UK politics has moved fast. Labour’s support fell sharply. Andy Burnham won in Makerfield. Keir Starmer stepped down as leader.
Burnham is now the widely tipped frontrunner to become the next Prime Minister. It’s not a certainty, but it’s close. As a business working closely with landlords and the private rental sector, we wanted to break down what a Burnham premiership could mean for property investors.
Our research into Manchester’s own housing market raised an important question. If Burnham’s approach were applied nationally, what would that mean for landlords and tenants across the UK?
Manchester has seen rising rents, growing homelessness, and mounting pressure on temporary accommodation, despite years of regeneration investment. These issues aren’t unique to Manchester. They reflect a national housing shortage, and much of the policy needed to fix it sits outside a metro mayor’s control.
Still, if Burnham’s Manchester playbook shapes national policy, landlords should understand what’s coming. Some of it may cause concern. Not all of it is bad news.
The leadership timeline
Here are the key dates to watch:
- July 9th: Nominations for the Labour leadership open
- July 16th: Nominations close
- July 20th: Possible date of Burnham’s premiership, if uncontested
- August 6th: Ballot opens
- August 27th: Ballot closes
- August 29th: Result announced, if contested
To stand, Burnham needs nominations from 20% of Labour MPs (at least 81) and backing from 5% of local party branches, including two trade unions.
A win isn’t guaranteed. If more than one candidate stands, we won’t know the outcome until late August. An uncontested run would move much faster.
Six policies landlords should watch
1. Land value tax
This proposed reform to council tax and stamp duty has circulated for years. It’s a tax based on property value, not land value, despite the name.
Burnham has backed the idea. Under the proposal, homeowners would pay 0.48% of their property’s value annually. Second homes and empty properties, likely including rental properties, would pay 0.96%.
The concept isn’t new. It’s over a century old, and Germany introduced a similar system last year. A north-south divide is a real risk, with southern homeowners facing much higher bills. It’s a significant undertaking either way.
If landlords can pass the 0.96% rate on through rent, the impact may be manageable. The tax could also replace stamp duty, which may actually encourage portfolio growth if the reform is well designed.
This policy is unlikely to take effect before the 2029 election, but it’s worth tracking closely.
2. Council housing
Burnham has pledged the largest council housebuilding programme in 50 years, alongside new restrictions on Right to Buy, including a suspension of the scheme for new-build properties.
Delivery is the challenge. Labour’s target of 1.5 million new homes by mid-2029 is already behind schedule. Savills forecasts around 840,000 homes under construction, compared to 1.16 million built in the five years before Labour took office in 2024.
Workforce shortages, funding gaps, and planning delays all stand in the way. Devolving more power to local councils could help, but practical delivery remains uncertain.
For the private rental sector, the clearest impact may be reduced availability of tenants on housing benefit. Whether that’s a positive or negative for individual landlords will depend on their portfolio.
3. Devolution of powers
Burnham has already signalled plans for a “Number 10 North,” devolving ministerial duties to Manchester and handing more power to mayors and council leaders.
We see this as broadly positive. Spreading decision-making across the country can improve regional equality, and local leaders are often best placed to understand what their areas need.
4. Greater public control of essential services
This proposal, covering water, housing, energy, and transport, remains light on detail.
Our reading is less public ownership of utilities and transport, alongside more social housing and tighter regulation of private rental property. We don’t expect full government ownership of rental housing, but the direction of travel points toward more public oversight.
5. Business rate reform
One proposal cuts business rates by 20% for pubs, clubs, and music venues, with a higher threshold that could exempt small independent hospitality, leisure, and retail businesses altogether.
To fund this, Burnham plans higher taxes on large out-of-town warehouses and logistics hubs, which could increase costs for deliveries and online orders.
For landlords, the key question is timing. With rent increases now limited to once a year, any new costs introduced this autumn may be harder to factor into rent reviews quickly. Waiting until after the autumn budget to review rents may be the more prudent approach.
6. Net zero
EPC targets and assessment reform remain a live concern for landlords. Ed Miliband, currently Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, is rumoured to be in line for Chancellor under Burnham. If confirmed, we’d expect continued momentum on net zero policy, potentially with new funding attached.
Our view
There’s genuine uncertainty ahead, and speculation only goes so far. Some have suggested another “summer of stagnation” while the country waits for clarity.
One reassurance: Burnham has stated he doesn’t want landlords pushed out of the market. We’ll continue monitoring developments closely. In the meantime, our advice to landlords is to stay steady and take the long view.
